Outperformance Signals

Hyperliquid

HYPEUSD

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Only 7 months of data and 4 closed trades — treat this as a working hypothesis. 4h MACD + ADX>35 shows a profit factor of 5.57 and +41% alpha, but the sample is too small for confidence. The ADX>35 filter completely avoided Q4 2025's crash. We'll re-evaluate with more data by Q4 2026.

5-Year Backtest Results

Mean quarterly alpha+4.30%
Beats buy-and-holdn/a
Sharpe-like ration/a
Worst quarter-47.6% (Q4 2025)
ADX thresholdADX > 35
StrategyLong-only MACD(12,26,9) + ADX(14)
TimeframeDaily (1D)
Study periodQ2 2021 — Q1 2026 (20 quarters)

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Bitcoin MACD provides technical indicator signals, not financial advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results. MACD signals do not beat buy-and-hold for BTC on average. Always do your own research before making investment decisions. Bitcoin MACD is not liable for any financial losses resulting from the use of this service, nor for any failure or delay in delivering alerts or notifications.