Bearish Signal Detection

Bitcoin

BTCUSD

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Our signals don't beat buy-and-hold for Bitcoin on average. What they do: detect bearish momentum shifts early. Q2 2022 produced +35% alpha when BTC dropped 58%. That's the value — a systematic exit plan, not a trading edge.

5-Year Backtest Results

Mean quarterly alpha-1.89%

Beats buy-and-hold50%

Sharpe-like ratio-0.18

Worst quarter-38.86% (Q4 2024)

ADX thresholdADX > 20

StrategyLong-only MACD(12,26,9) + ADX(14)

TimeframeDaily (1D)

Study periodQ2 2021 — Q1 2026 (20 quarters)

Learn More

Q2 2022: When the Signal Mattered Most →

What Is MACD? →

Honest About Our Performance →

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Bitcoin MACD provides technical indicator signals, not financial advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results. MACD signals do not beat buy-and-hold for BTC on average. Always do your own research before making investment decisions. Bitcoin MACD is not liable for any financial losses resulting from the use of this service, nor for any failure or delay in delivering alerts or notifications.