Bearish Signal Detection

Solana

SOLUSD

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SOL signals don't beat buy-and-hold on average — mean quarterly alpha is -7.1%. SOL's bull runs are too steep to fully capture with trend-following. But the strategy shines in downturns: profit factor of 2.55, and the 4h bearish signal catches 89% of major crashes ~5 days early. This is crash protection, not a trading edge.

5-Year Backtest Results

Mean quarterly alpha-7.1%

Beats buy-and-hold50%

Sharpe-like ratio-0.11

Worst quarter-192.5% (Q4 2023)

ADX thresholdADX > 20

StrategyLong-only MACD(12,26,9) + ADX(14)

TimeframeDaily (1D)

Study periodQ2 2021 — Q1 2026 (20 quarters)

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Solana: What Our Signals Do →

What Is MACD? →

Why ADX Matters for Our Signals →

Honest About Our Performance →

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Bitcoin MACD provides technical indicator signals, not financial advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results. MACD signals do not beat buy-and-hold for BTC on average. Always do your own research before making investment decisions. Bitcoin MACD is not liable for any financial losses resulting from the use of this service, nor for any failure or delay in delivering alerts or notifications.