Bearish Signal Detection

Dogecoin

DOGEUSD

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DOGE signals don't beat buy-and-hold on average — mean quarterly alpha is -6.21%, heavily skewed by one meme-driven quarter (Q2 2021: -126.9% alpha when DOGE went parabolic). But the strategy beats hold in 59% of quarters, and winning trades outpace losing trades nearly 2:1 by dollar value (profit factor 1.758). The 4h bearish signal catches 87% of major crashes ~3 days early.

5-Year Backtest Results

Mean quarterly alpha-6.21%

Beats buy-and-hold59%

Sharpe-like ratio-0.16

Worst quarter-126.90% (Q2 2021)

ADX thresholdADX > 25

StrategyLong-only MACD(12,26,9) + ADX(14)

TimeframeDaily (1D)

Study periodQ2 2021 — Q1 2026 (20 quarters)

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Dogecoin: What Our Signals Do →

Why Each Asset Gets Its Own ADX Threshold →

Honest About Our Performance →

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Bitcoin MACD provides technical indicator signals, not financial advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results. MACD signals do not beat buy-and-hold for BTC on average. Always do your own research before making investment decisions. Bitcoin MACD is not liable for any financial losses resulting from the use of this service, nor for any failure or delay in delivering alerts or notifications.