Bearish Signal Detection
DOGEUSD
DOGE doesn't beat buy-and-hold under our corrected methodology (compound returns, next-open fills) — not at any ADX setting we tested. Mean quarterly alpha is -16.2%, dominated by Q2 2021: DOGE rose +310% on the meme frenzy while four whipsaw trades compounded to -47%, a -357.1% alpha quarter. The strategy still beats hold in 59% of quarters (profit factor 1.42), and the 4h bearish signal catches 87% of major crashes ~3 days early. A systematic exit plan, not a trading edge.
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