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Bitcoin MACD provides technical indicator signals, not financial advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results. MACD signals do not beat buy-and-hold for BTC on average. Always do your own research before making investment decisions. Bitcoin MACD is not liable for any financial losses resulting from the use of this service, nor for any failure or delay in delivering alerts or notifications.

Data: Polygon.io · bitcoinmacd@gmail.com · © 2026 Bitcoin MACD

Historically Positive Alpha

Avalanche MACD Signals

AVAXUSD

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Four and a half years of daily data show +31.17% mean quarterly alpha — the highest of any asset we track. The strategy beat buy-and-hold in all 19 quarters (100%). Context matters: AVAX lost -89% over the period, so 'beating hold' means avoiding the worst drawdowns rather than capturing extra gains. Uses plain MACD with no ADX filter — the same pattern as ONDO. Any ADX threshold reduced performance. At ~21 signals per year, expect alerts at similar frequency to Bitcoin. Max drawdown is -90%, nearly identical to buy-and-hold — the strategy doesn't shield you from AVAX's volatility, it only sidesteps the worst stretches.

5-Year Backtest Results

Mean quarterly alpha+31.17%
Beats buy-and-hold100%
Sharpe-like ratio3.72
Worst quarter+5.02% (Q4 2023)
ADX thresholdADX > 0
StrategyLong-only MACD(12,26,9) + ADX(14)
TimeframeDaily (1D)
Study periodQ2 2021 — Q1 2026 (20 quarters)

Learn More

Avalanche: What Our Signals Do →
What Is Avalanche? →
Why Each Asset Gets Its Own ADX Threshold →
Honest About Our Performance →
How Our Strategy Works →

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