Bearish Signal Detection
TRXUSD
TRX gained +566% over five years — our signals don't come close to matching that. Mean quarterly alpha is -0.46%, essentially flat. But at ADX>40, profit factor is 3.79 — when the strategy trades (only ~6 times per year), winning trades show a nearly 4:1 ratio. The tradeoff: long silent periods where TRX grinds higher and the strategy sits in cash. No crash detection value — TRX had zero >10% weekly drawdowns in five years.
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