Bearish Signal Detection

TRON

TRXUSD

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TRX gained +566% over five years — our signals don't come close to matching that. Mean quarterly alpha is -0.46%, essentially flat. But at ADX>40, profit factor is 3.79 — when the strategy trades (only ~6 times per year), winning trades dominate by nearly 4:1. The tradeoff: long silent periods where TRX grinds higher and the strategy sits in cash. No crash detection value — TRX had zero >10% weekly drawdowns in five years.

5-Year Backtest Results

Mean quarterly alpha-0.46%
Beats buy-and-hold45%
Sharpe-like ratio-0.01
Worst quarter-45.52% (Q3 2021)
ADX thresholdADX > 40
StrategyLong-only MACD(12,26,9) + ADX(14)
TimeframeDaily (1D)
Study periodQ2 2021 — Q1 2026 (20 quarters)

Learn More

TRON: What Our Signals Do →
Why Each Asset Gets Its Own ADX Threshold →
Honest About Our Performance →

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Bitcoin MACD provides technical indicator signals, not financial advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results. MACD signals do not beat buy-and-hold for BTC on average. Always do your own research before making investment decisions. Bitcoin MACD is not liable for any financial losses resulting from the use of this service, nor for any failure or delay in delivering alerts or notifications.