NEAR: What Our Signals Do
NEAR's strategy turned a −0.6% hold return into +789.5%. That is not a typo — and the 75% quarterly beat rate means it did it consistently, not through one lucky quarter.
NEAR Protocol is a Layer 1 blockchain that has repositioned itself as a crypto-AI platform, with a focus on user-owned AI agents and decentralized data infrastructure. We added it because the combination of its AI narrative and trend-following behavior produced one of the strongest backtest profiles in our system.
The Backtest: 1D MACD + ADX>15
NEAR runs on the daily timeframe with an ADX threshold of just 15. That is the lowest filter we use for any asset — barely above no filter at all. Why so low? NEAR's trends are readable even at low momentum. The asset transitions between trending and ranging states cleanly, and even modest ADX readings above 15 reliably distinguish real moves from noise.
Higher ADX thresholds work on NEAR but reduce signal count without proportionally improving quality. ADX>15 is the sweet spot: it filters out the absolute weakest signals while keeping the strategy active enough to capture most of NEAR's trend changes.
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| Timeframe | 1D |
| ADX threshold | >15 |
| Profit factor | 2.48 |
| Mean quarterly alpha | +6.5% |
| Sharpe ratio | +0.16 |
| Signals per year | ~22.3 |
| Beat buy-and-hold | 75% of quarters |
| Strategy return | +789.5% |
| Buy-and-hold return | −0.6% |
| Data window | ~4 years |
| Tier | 1 |
What Makes These Numbers Stand Out
A profit factor of 2.48 means the strategy's winning trades produced .48 for every lost on losing trades. Only LTC's 3.74 (over 10 years) is higher in our system. NEAR achieves this over 4 years — a shorter window but still spanning one full bull/bear cycle.
The +789.5% strategy return against a −0.6% hold is the largest gap in our system. NEAR went essentially nowhere over four years on a hold basis — it ended almost exactly where it started. The strategy captured the rallies and dodged the drawdowns to produce an 8x return from an asset that was flat.
The 75% quarterly beat rate means the strategy outperformed hold in three out of every four quarters. Combined with a positive mean quarterly alpha of +6.5% and a positive Sharpe of +0.16, this is a consistent performer — not a strategy that relies on one or two outlier quarters.
Tier 1 classification is clear.
What the Signals Are Good At
NEAR's price action has a quality that makes it ideal for daily MACD: clean trend transitions. When NEAR starts trending, the move builds over days and sustains for weeks. The transition from sideways to trending shows up clearly on the daily MACD, and ADX>15 confirms it almost immediately.
The strategy captures both sides well. Bullish entries typically fire within the first 20% of a multi-week rally. Bearish exits fire before the bulk of the decline. This two-sided effectiveness — catching rallies and avoiding drawdowns — is what produces the 75% beat rate.
NEAR's AI narrative creates extended trend moves when the sector is in favor. Unlike memecoins that spike and fade in days, AI-narrative rallies in NEAR tend to build over 2-4 weeks, which is exactly the timeframe daily MACD is designed to capture.
Where They Struggle
The 25% of quarters where the strategy loses to hold follow a pattern: slow, steady grinds higher where NEAR drifts up without generating enough momentum for MACD crossovers. The strategy sits in cash during these periods, watching the price climb. Each individual miss is small — a few percent — but they add up over time and drag the mean quarterly alpha down to +6.5% from what would otherwise be higher.
Also: NEAR's AI pivot is recent. The protocol's identity as an "AI blockchain" is a 2024-2025 development. The backtest includes earlier periods where NEAR traded on different narratives (general L1 competition, sharding technology). If the AI narrative fades or fails to deliver real adoption, NEAR's future price behavior may not resemble the patterns the strategy has learned.
Four years of data is decent but not definitive. We have one bull cycle and one bear cycle. The next cycle will tell us whether these results are repeatable.
What to Expect
About 22 signals per year — roughly two per month. NEAR is long-only: buy on bullish MACD crossovers that pass ADX>15, exit to cash on bearish crossovers. No shorting.
The low ADX threshold means NEAR fires signals more frequently than higher-filtered assets like RENDER (9/year). Expect a moderate pace of alerts with a higher proportion of actionable signals than most assets in our system.
For background on NEAR's technology and what drives its price, see What Is NEAR?.
NEAR is one of the strongest signal profiles in our system — 2.48 profit factor, 75% quarterly beat rate, and a +789.5% strategy return from a flat asset. The low ADX threshold and daily timeframe capture NEAR's clean trend transitions effectively. Four years of data gives us confidence, but not certainty.
This is educational content, not financial advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Based on ~4 years of daily data from Polygon.io (2022 – Oct 2026).