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BTC drifted up 1.9% to $76,244. ETH slipped 1.6%. SOL nudged 1.6% higher. None of them tripped a daily signal.
The 4h charts showed plenty of noise — BTC flipped bullish, bearish, then bullish again inside five days. That's churn on a daily-strategy asset, not our signal. The timeframe we chose is doing exactly what it was chosen to do.
Underneath the price quiet, supply is doing something loud. Bitcoin exchange reserves fell to 2.68M BTC — the lowest since December 2017.
ETFs kept buying. Corporates kept buying. Morgan Stanley's MSBT logged nine straight inflow days, and Strategy now holds more BTC than BlackRock's IBIT.
Funding rates turned negative through the consolidation, which historically sets up squeezes rather than crashes. None of that is a signal on its own. We don't trade narratives — we trade MACD crossovers on daily candles, and those stayed quiet this week.
But the setup is worth noting. Tightening supply, negative funding, range-bound price: that's the kind of backdrop where a daily crossover, when it arrives, tends to move faster than usual.
Does that mean one's coming? We don't know. We'll tell you when the signal fires, not before.
The dominant narrative on crypto Twitter this week framed the Fed nominee's comments and the SEC's enforcement pullback as a “pro-crypto reset.” That story may age well over months. It did not move the needle on any indicator we track this week.
Policy tailwinds and MACD crossovers aren't the same instrument. One of them is months from any confirmation vote. The other will cross when volume and trend say so.
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